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TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N  38.2W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......260NE 140SE 100SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 260SE 280SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N  38.2W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N  38.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.8N  38.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 130SW 190NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.1N  39.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.6N  40.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.8N  42.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.6N  43.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 37.0N  42.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 39.5N  38.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 39.6N  32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N  38.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
 
 
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