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TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N  38.6W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 190SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N  38.6W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  38.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.3N  38.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 35.7N  38.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.1N  40.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.8N  41.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.3N  43.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.5N  43.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 39.5N  40.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 40.0N  34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N  38.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
 
 
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