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HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N  38.9W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  70 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 130SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT.......170NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N  38.9W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N  39.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 36.7N  38.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 36.1N  38.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.6N  39.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 130SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.4N  41.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  90SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.5N  42.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 36.5N  43.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 39.2N  41.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 40.1N  35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.9N  38.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 
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