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HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N  39.8W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
50 KT.......100NE 130SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT.......170NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 280SE 370SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N  39.8W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N  40.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.8N  39.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 36.7N  38.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 36.2N  38.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.5N  39.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.0N  41.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.1N  42.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 37.5N  43.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 40.0N  39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N  39.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER FRACASSO/BLAKE
 
 
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