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HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N  40.5W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  50SE  15SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT.......200NE 190SE 140SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N  40.5W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N  40.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 35.9N  40.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  15SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.4N  39.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  10SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 36.4N  39.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 130SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 36.1N  39.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.6N  40.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.5N  41.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 37.2N  43.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 40.4N  40.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N  40.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 
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