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HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
2100 UTC TUE SEP 12 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N  39.6W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......230NE 150SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N  39.6W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  39.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.2N  40.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...220NE 160SE 130SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 34.4N  41.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 140SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.4N  41.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE   0SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 36.4N  40.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 130SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 37.1N  40.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 37.5N  41.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...210NE 150SE 130SW 170NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 38.1N  42.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 40.0N  43.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N  39.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
 
 
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