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HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
1500 UTC TUE SEP 12 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N  39.4W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......220NE 180SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N  39.4W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N  39.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N  40.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 160SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.3N  41.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 34.3N  41.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 35.3N  41.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE   0SW  35NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 140SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.3N  41.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.0N  41.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 130SW 170NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 38.5N  43.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 40.5N  43.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N  39.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
 
 
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