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HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
0300 UTC TUE SEP 12 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N  39.6W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE  70SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 165SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N  39.6W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  39.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.7N  39.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N  40.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.4N  41.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  25NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 34.6N  41.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 35.6N  41.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.5N  41.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 37.3N  41.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 38.5N  42.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N  39.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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