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TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N  40.1W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  60SE  60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N  40.1W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N  40.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.1N  40.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.8N  40.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.7N  40.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.8N  40.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.9N  40.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 34.3N  41.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 36.3N  41.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 37.2N  41.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N  40.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 
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