ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
1500 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  40.0W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  40.0W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  39.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.1N  40.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  10SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.8N  40.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.5N  40.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.5N  40.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.6N  40.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 65NE  50SE  50SW  55NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.3N  41.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  65SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 35.6N  41.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 36.9N  41.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N  40.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 
NNNN