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TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  39.1W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  15SE  15SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  39.1W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  38.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.5N  39.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.9N  40.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.4N  40.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.0N  40.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.8N  41.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.7N  41.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 34.0N  41.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 36.0N  40.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N  39.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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