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TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  38.7W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  15SE  15SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  38.7W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N  38.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.7N  39.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.1N  40.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.6N  40.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N  41.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.7N  41.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.7N  41.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.1N  41.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 34.8N  41.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N  38.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 
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