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TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  34.3W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  15SE  15SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  34.3W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  33.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.8N  36.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N  38.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.2N  40.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.6N  41.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.1N  41.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.9N  42.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.0N  42.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.1N  43.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N  34.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 
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