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TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  32.5W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE  15SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  32.5W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  31.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.9N  34.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.1N  37.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.4N  39.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.7N  40.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.3N  41.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.9N  42.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 28.8N  42.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.8N  43.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  32.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/KELLY
 
 
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