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TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  28.3W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  28.3W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  27.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N  30.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  10SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.5N  33.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.8N  36.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.1N  38.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.6N  39.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.4N  41.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 28.0N  42.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 31.5N  43.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  28.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/CAMPOSANO
 
 
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