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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  26.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  26.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  25.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.4N  28.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.3N  31.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.5N  34.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.8N  37.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.0N  38.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.4N  40.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.1N  41.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.2N  42.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N  26.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/CAMPOSANO
 
 
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