ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023
Margot continues to produce small bursts of convection near the
estimated low-level center location. Microwave imagery from 0923
UTC showed some fragmented curved bands in the northeastern quadrant
of the storm. Around 1200 UTC, satellite-derived surface winds
measured the eastern portion of the circulation and revealed peak
winds of 44 kt and a significant expansion of tropical-storm-force
winds to the north. Based on these data, and subjective and
objective satellite estimates, the intensity is lowered to a
possibly generous 55 kt.
The tropical storm is drifting southeastward (135/4 kt) around a
building mid-level ridge over the northern Atlantic. Margot is
expected to move in a clockwise loop around the ridge during the
next couple of days or so. The latest NHC forecast shows a slightly
broader loop that lies between the previous forecast and the various
multi-model consensus aids. By Monday, Margot should turn northward
and then eastward as it moves around the periphery of the ridge.
The model guidance at days 4 and 5 has a large spread in the
along-track position (the forward speed) of Margot and therefore,
the track forecast has greater-than-average uncertainty. The
official prediction lies between the previous forecast and the
simple consensus aids at those times.
Margot is expected to continue to gradually weaken during the next
couple of days as the vertical wind shear increases and the cyclone
moves into an increasingly dry and stable airmass. Simulated
satellite imagery from global models shows periodic bursts of
convection through day 4, and the storm is expected to become
extratropical by the end of the forecast period. While the official
forecast shows Margot's intensity holding steady between 48-96 h,
some minor fluctuations are possible during this time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 36.3N 38.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 35.8N 38.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 35.1N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 34.6N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 34.8N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 35.6N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 37.0N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 39.5N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 39.6N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Bucci
NNNN