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Hurricane Margot Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Wed Sep 13 2023
 
Very little change is noted with Margot's convective structure 
since the last advisory. The cyclone continues to exhibit a double 
eyewall structure based on a 1527Z AMSR-2 pass, and Margot's eye 
still occasionally appears in conventional GOES-16 IR and VIS 
imagery. Given the lack of change with the hurricane's internal 
structure and appearance, the intensity will be maintained at 80 kt 
for this advisory. The motion has bent just slightly to the right 
since this morning and is now moving due north at 6 kt.
 
Margot continues to gradually slow down as it moves within the flow 
between a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic and a narrow 
upper trough to its west. A general northward motion should continue 
over the next day or so before the track forecast becomes very 
challenging. Margot will then become caught in weak steering 
currents, with the global models showing a blocking ridge developing 
to the north of the cyclone by late week into the weekend. There 
remain notable differences between the GFS and ECMWF with regards to 
the strength and position of this ridge, which has large 
implications in the longer-range track of Margot, but there has been 
some tightening of the model consensus since this morning. This 
supports the storm making a gradual clockwise loop between 36-72 hrs 
as the ridge initially builds north of the cyclone and then slides 
off to the east. By 120 hrs, the storm will likely begin 
accelerating off to the northeast as it gets picked up by the 
westerlies, but the overall track forecast confidence remains low 
given the model spread late in the forecast period.
 
Increasing deep-layer shear during the next 24 to 36 hrs, 
entrainment of drier air, and a likelihood of Margot upwelling 
cooler waters should result in a steady weakening of the cyclone 
going through the end of the week and into the weekend. The NHC 
intensity forecast is close to the previous one and shows a gradual 
decrease in strength through 72 hrs, in good agreement with the 
consensus of the intensity aids. Although this forecast keeps Margot 
a tropical cyclone through day 5, simulated satellite imagery from 
the global models suggests these increasingly hostile environmental 
factors could cause the system to lose organized convection and 
become post-tropical by early next week as the storm lingers west 
of the Azores.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 34.7N  40.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 35.5N  40.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 36.4N  40.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 36.7N  39.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 36.5N  39.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  16/0600Z 36.0N  39.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 35.6N  41.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 36.5N  43.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 39.5N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Orrison/Blake
 
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