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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023
 
The small eye of Lee has become cloud filled this afternoon. 
A 1643 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass and the earlier reconnaissance 
aircraft reports indicate that Lee's eye was a little less than 
10 n mi in diameter.  The microwave imagery revealed a well-defined
inner core but there was a lack of banding noted just outside the 
core. This is likely due to some drier mid-level air that has 
wrapped into the circulation.  The Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft did not find any stronger flight-level or SFMR winds 
after the release of the previous advisory, and the initial 
intensity for this advisory has been set at 130 kt.  This is a blend 
of the earlier reconnaissance data and subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimates of T6.5 or 127 kt from TAFB and SAB.  NOAA and Air Force 
reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate Lee again this 
evening. 
 
The moderate shear and dry mid-level air that has affected Lee
today is not expected to abate during the next 12-24 hours.  After
that time, the upper-level wind pattern could become a little more
conducive for re-strengthening.  However, the timing of eyewall
replacement cycles makes it difficult to predict when Lee might
re-intensify.  Although there is lower-than-normal confidence in
the exact details of the intensity forecast, there is high
confidence that Lee will remain a powerful hurricane into early next
week. The latest NHC wind speed forecast is a blend of the HFIP
corrected consensus model and the multi-model intensity consensus
aids.

Lee continues to move west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 11 kt. 
A well-established mid- to upper-level ridge over the central 
Atlantic should continue to steer the hurricane west-northward into 
early next week.  The ridge is forecast to build southwestward near 
Bermuda late this weekend and early next week which is expected 
cause Lee's forward speed to slow around 5-7 kt between days 2-4. 
Late in the period, a mid-latitude trough that will be moving into 
the Great Lakes Region is forecast to weaken the western portion of 
the ridge, and Lee should begin to turn more poleward around that 
time.  The track guidance is still in good agreement through about 
72 hours, but there is slightly more spread at days 4 and 5. 
The spread is primarily related to speed differences in the guidance 
during the latter portion of the forecast period.   The latest NHC 
track prediction is again close to the HCCA and TCVA consensus 
aids, and it is very similar to the previous official forecast. 


KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Lee's core is expected to move well north of the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend
and early next week.
 
2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are affecting 
portions of the northern Leeward Islands.  These conditions
will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the weekend.
 
3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic.  Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday.  Continue to monitor 
updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 18.9N  55.5W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 19.7N  56.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 20.6N  58.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 21.3N  60.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 21.9N  61.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 22.5N  62.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 23.0N  63.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 23.7N  66.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 25.1N  67.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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