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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  10...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132023
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023
 
Lee continues to strengthen at an exceptional rate. The hurricane
has quickly developed a clear symmetric eye surrounded by very cold
cloud tops. The intensity estimate of 115 kt is based primarily on
recent UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimates near that value. The 102 kt
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 18Z were
constrained by Dvorak rules, but both analyses noted that the Data-T
was higher. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Lee starting at 2330 UTC tonight, which
should provide much-needed in-situ data to better evaluate the
hurricane's intensity.
 
Low shear, very warm SSTs and copious moisture should allow Lee to
continue to rapidly strengthen at least tonight. All 4 regional
hurricane models (HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, HMON) forecast that Lee
will become a category 5 hurricane at some point in the next day or
so. In addition, the short-term rapid intensification probabilities
from SHIPS and DTOPS are still very high. Internal factors like
eyewall replacement cycles will become a factor soon, and these are
not easily predictable well in advance, but we don't yet see an 
indication that Lee's intensification is stopping yet. The official 
intensity forecast is quite close to the intensity consensus after 
24 h, reflecting just how high several of the model forecasts are.
 
Confidence remains high in the track for Lee, with almost no change 
made to the NHC track forecast. Lee should continue moving 
west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge 
for the next 5 days. The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken by 
early next week, causing Lee to slow down. This track should keep 
the core of Lee and its damaging winds north of the Leeward Islands. 
There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early 
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential 
impacts a week or more out.
 
The biggest risk from Lee during the next 5 days will be high seas
and dangerous surf. Rip currents are likely to begin affecting
portions of the northern Caribbean on Friday. These conditions will
spread westward through the weekend, reaching most of the U.S. East
Coast by Sunday evening. For more information, please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Lee has become a major hurricane, and further strengthening is 
expected, with its core moving north of the northern Leeward 
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early 
next week. 

2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in 
the northern Leeward Islands beginning Friday. These conditions will 
spread westward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks 
and Caicos, and the Bahamas through the weekend.
 
3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the 
U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday. Please consult products from your 
local weather office for more information.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 16.9N  51.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 17.6N  53.0W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 18.7N  55.2W  145 KT 165 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 19.7N  57.2W  140 KT 160 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 20.6N  59.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 21.3N  60.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 22.0N  61.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 23.1N  64.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 24.0N  66.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 
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