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Tropical Depression Katia Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122023
300 AM GMT Mon Sep 04 2023
 
Deep convection has been on the decline and only a small area of 
thunderstorms remain well north of the center.  A recent ASCAT pass 
showed peak winds in the 25-30 kt range, and based on that data, 
Katia has been downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. This value 
is also in line with the latest satellite intensity estimates.
 
The depression is moving slowly west-northwestward.  A slow
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected for about
another day before the system reverses course and drifts
southeastward in the flow between a low- to mid-level ridge to
its west and a deep-layer low to the northeast.  Only small
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one
lies near the various consensus models.
 
West-southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry air should continue
to weaken Katia, and this system will likely become a remnant low
in 12 to 24 hours.  Dissipation is expected in 3 to 4 days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 27.1N  33.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 27.5N  33.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 28.1N  34.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1200Z 28.4N  34.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z 28.3N  34.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/1200Z 27.9N  33.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z 27.4N  33.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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