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Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023
 
This morning's satellite presentation consists of a compact,
symmetric cloud pattern with intermittent deep convective bursts of
convection near the surface center.  An earlier AMSR2 microwave
image revealed evidence of a small eye-like mid-level feature.
Based on the much-improved structure, particularly in the microwave 
images, this advisory's initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, but 
it could be stronger.  The intensity philosophy remains unchanged.  
Increasing northerly shear associated with Hurricane Franklin's 
outflow should weaken the cyclone.  By early Saturday, Jose 
is forecast to become absorbed by Franklin and an intruding 
mid-latitude baroclinic system.
 
Jose's initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 005/16 kt.
The small cyclone is being steered by the mid-tropospheric flow
produced by a high pressure to the east over the central Atlantic
and larger Hurricane Franklin approaching from the northwest.  Jose
is expected to accelerate northward through dissipation while the
deep-layer southerly steering flow strengthens.  The deterministic
guidance agrees with this solution, and the NHC forecast lies
close to the HFIP corrected consensus aid.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 33.9N  52.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 37.0N  51.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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