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TROPICAL STORM IDALIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2023
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDALIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 16 13(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHERRY PT NC 34 40 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
NEW RIVER NC 34 62 8(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
NEW RIVER NC 50 5 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 66 5(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 8 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SURF CITY NC 34 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
SURF CITY NC 50 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
SURF CITY NC 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
WILMINGTON NC 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
WILMINGTON NC 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 46 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LITTLE RIVER 50 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 51 X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CHARLESTON SC 50 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAVANNAH GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 12(21) 6(27)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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