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HURRICANE IDALIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2023
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDALIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X 4( 4) 37(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 5( 5) 36(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SURF CITY NC 34 X 16(16) 40(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
SURF CITY NC 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 13(13) 29(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 46(46) 33(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 5( 5) 26(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FLORENCE SC 34 1 27(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
COLUMBIA SC 34 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
LITTLE RIVER 34 1 65(66) 14(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X 13(13) 18(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
LITTLE RIVER 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 75(76) 10(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 24(24) 16(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 80(81) 4(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 18(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
CHARLESTON SC 34 2 94(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X 69(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 12 86(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 1 80(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X 22(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
AUGUSTA GA 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SAVANNAH GA 34 36 63(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAVANNAH GA 50 1 68(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KINGS BAY GA 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
KINGS BAY GA 50 20 26(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
KINGS BAY GA 64 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
WAYCROSS GA 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WAYCROSS GA 50 80 14(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
WAYCROSS GA 64 12 8(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 96 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 11 8(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
JACKSONVILLE 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
JACKSONVILLE 50 14 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
JACKSONVILLE 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 19 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
THE VILLAGES 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
ORLANDO FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PATRICK AFB 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
VENICE FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 33 X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ST MARKS FL 34 89 X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
ST MARKS FL 50 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
ST MARKS FL 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
APALACHICOLA 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14)
$$
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