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HURRICANE IDALIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDALIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 12(23) 1(24) X(24)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) X(13) 1(14)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 8(33) 1(34) X(34)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 8(34) X(34) X(34)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) 4(39) X(39) X(39)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 1(22) X(22) 1(23)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 32(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 22(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 38(40) 19(59) X(59) 1(60) X(60)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 39(40) 11(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X 6( 6) 71(77) 2(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 27(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 22(22) 64(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) 41(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X 28(28) 57(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
KINGS BAY GA 34 2 82(84) 9(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X 17(17) 17(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
WAYCROSS GA 34 1 89(90) 5(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X 39(39) 14(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
WAYCROSS GA 64 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 2 79(81) 7(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 11(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 1 77(78) 7(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 8 85(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 15(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
THE VILLAGES 34 11 49(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
ORLANDO FL 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PATRICK AFB 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
FT PIERCE FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
W PALM BEACH 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NAPLES FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FT MYERS FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
VENICE FL 34 64 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
TAMPA FL 34 77 10(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
TAMPA FL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 86 13(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 4 51(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 5 64(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ST MARKS FL 34 13 73(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
ST MARKS FL 50 X 36(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
ST MARKS FL 64 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
APALACHICOLA 34 50 25(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
APALACHICOLA 50 3 12(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
APALACHICOLA 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 93 2(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 29 14(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 6 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 7 12(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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