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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023
 
...IDALIA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN 
CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 85.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Storm Surge Warning has been extended westward to Indian Pass
Florida.  The Hurricane Warning has also been extended westward to
Indian Pass.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from west of
Indian Pass westward to Mexico Beach.
 
The Storm Surge Watch along the southeast coast of the United
States has been extended northward to South Santee River.
 
The Tropical Storm Watch along the southeast coast of the United
States has been extended northward to South Santee River.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to South Santee River South
Carolina
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system.  Additional watches and warnings along the
southeast United States coast will likely be required later tonight 
or on Tuesday.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 85.1 West.  Idalia is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A northward motion is
expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center
of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba tonight,
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the Gulf 
coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Rapid strengthening is predicted during the next day or so. 
Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane this evening or tonight, 
and become a major hurricane by late Tuesday or Tuesday night. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3 
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
 
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected within 
the warning areas in western Cuba through Tuesday morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning on Tuesday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
beginning tonight and within the tropical storm warning area
along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday. 

Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast U.S. 
coast within the southern portions of the watch area by early 
Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL:  Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall 
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches.

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, 
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from 
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible, 
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides 
across western Cuba. 

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally 
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of 
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into 
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas 
Wednesday into Thursday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan.  These swells will 
spread northward along the eastern Gulf Coast during the next day 
or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local 
weather office.
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible starting Tuesday along 
the west central Florida coast and the tornado threat will spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend area by Tuesday night.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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