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TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102023
0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  78.0W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  75 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 220SE 180SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  78.0W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  78.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 34.0N  75.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.5N  71.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.4N  69.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...160NE  90SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.5N  68.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...140NE   0SE  60SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.2N  67.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...140NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 31.4N  66.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...140NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 33.1N  63.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 35.6N  61.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N  78.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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