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HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102023
0900 UTC WED AUG 30 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  84.1W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  940 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 135SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  84.1W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N  84.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N  82.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.1N  79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 170SE  50SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 33.8N  76.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 130SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.3N  72.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...170NE  80SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.4N  70.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.5N  69.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...130NE  60SE  80SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 30.7N  68.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 30.5N  66.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N  84.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 30/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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