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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102023
1500 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  85.8W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  85.8W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  86.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.7N  85.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.6N  85.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.9N  85.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  90SE  50SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 24.0N  85.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.2N  85.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.9N  84.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  70SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 33.0N  79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.5N  74.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N  85.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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