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TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082023
1500 UTC MON AUG 21 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  70.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  70.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  69.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N  70.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.7N  71.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.3N  70.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.2N  70.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.2N  69.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.8N  68.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  50SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.4N  65.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 26.4N  63.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N  70.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
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