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Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023
 
Cloud tops are beginning to warm around Franklin's rather large eye. 
A GMI microwave pass at 0136 UTC showed that the southern edge of 
the eyewall was beginning to erode.  The hurricane passed over NOAA 
buoy 41048 around 00 UTC and measured a central pressure of 955 mb 
with 20 kt of wind.  The initial intensity has been lowered to 100 
kt for this advisory and is closest to the TAFB estimate.

Franklin is moving to the northeast at 10 kt.  This motion is 
expected to continue for the next day or so as the hurricane moves 
around the northwest periphery of a subtropical ridge.  Beyond 24 h, 
Franklin is expected to begin interacting with a trough moving off 
the northeast coast of the US and turn to the east-northeast with an 
increase in forward speed.  However, global model guidance has 
significantly decreased the forward motion of the storm and the 
along-track position uncertainty remains higher than normal.  The 
new official track forecast has shifted slightly south of the 
previous prediction and has slowed noticeably. Even though the 
center of Franklin is forecast to pass to the northwest of Bermuda 
on Wednesday, tropical-storm-force winds associated with the 
hurricane are expected to extend well to the southeast of the 
center.

Franklin appears to be starting a gradual weakening trend.  In a 
day so, model guidance suggests the vertical wind shear should 
increase as it gets caught in the upper-level trough.  Franklin is 
still expected to complete its extratropical transition around day 
3 and dissipate by the end of the forecast period.  The NHC 
intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the previous 
cycle and remains close the various consensus aids.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Wednesday morning, when Franklin is forecast to make its closest
approach to the island.
 
2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the
east coast of the United States. These conditions are expected to
continue during the next several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 32.3N  69.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 33.5N  67.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 34.7N  65.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 35.8N  61.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 36.8N  58.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 38.3N  53.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 40.3N  49.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  03/0000Z 45.2N  41.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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