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Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
500 PM AST Sat Aug 26 2023
 

Visible and microwave satellite imagery show Franklin is becoming a 
well organized hurricane. AMSR2 microwave data showed a closed 
mid-level core that was vertically aligned with the low-level 
center. The latest visible imagery shows a dimple where an eye may 
be trying to develop. Deep convection has become more symmetrical, 
wrapping around the center throughout the day. NOAA Hurricane 
Hunters were in the system earlier this afternoon, with flight-level 
winds and SFMR winds supporting an intensity of around 70 kt. The 
UW-CIMSS ADT objective satellite estimates have been rising this 
afternoon as well. Given the improved satellite structure combined 
with the earlier data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters, the initial 
intensity is raised to 75 kt for this advisory. NOAA and Air Force 
Hurricane Hunters will be in the system later this evening.
 
Franklin is moving north-northwestward at 7 kt.  A 
north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast during the next 
few days as the storm moves along the western periphery of a 
mid-level ridge, taking it to the west of Bermuda on Tuesday.  By 
the middle of next week, a faster northeast to east-northeast motion 
is expected between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over 
eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. In the short 
range, models once again have trended westward, and the official NHC 
forecast has been nudged west as well. For the long term, models, 
including the GFS and ECMWF, have made a fairly large shift to the 
right. The NHC track was shifted in that direction in the long term, 
but remains to the left of the consensus aids. The confidence of the 
long-term forecast track is lower than usual.
 
Franklin has been steadily strengthening throughout the day. Further 
strengthening is forecast during the next few days with lower 
vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures in the western 
Atlantic. Franklin is forecast to become a major hurricane early 
next week. The strengthening trend should end in about 3 to 4 days 
with shear expected to increase over the system at that time. By day 
5, the current forecast track takes the system over much cooler 
SSTs. However, the intensity in the long range will be dependent on 
the eventual forecast track of Franklin. The current intensity 
forecast lies near the consensus aids, but still slightly lower than 
the HCCA aid.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 23.8N  67.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 24.7N  68.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 25.9N  68.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 27.1N  69.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 28.7N  69.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 30.3N  69.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 32.0N  69.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 35.2N  65.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  31/1800Z 39.1N  56.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Pasch
 
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