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Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 25 2023

Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that Franklin's 
low-level center has become completely exposed, with convection on 
the southeastern side of the system due to strong vertical wind 
shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been in the system this 
morning and found that the pressure has increased to 1003 mb and 
the flight-level winds have decreased, though strong convection 
prevented a full sample of the storm.  A blend of subjective and 
objective satellite estimates are in general agreement with data 
from the Air Force reconnaissance that show the winds slightly lower 
than the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is set 
to 45 kt.
 
The storm is moving slowly to the east-southeast at about 4 kt, 
around the base of a broad mid- to upper-level trough.  A turn to 
the east then a northeast motion is expected later today and 
tonight as ridging builds to the east of Franklin over the central 
Atlantic and the trough drops southwestward.  This system will 
then turn more northward late this weekend into early next week, 
with the core of the system probably moving to the west of Bermuda 
on Monday and Tuesday.  By the middle of next week, Franklin is 
forecast to turn to the northeast and increase in forward motion due 
to faster flow between the ridge and a mid-latitude trough over 
eastern Canada and the northeast U.S.  The NHC track forecast has 
shifted southeastward in the short term given the recent motion. 
At long range, there was once again another shift to the west in 
the guidance envelope and the official track forecast follows the 
trend.
 
Strong westerly vertical wind shear should remain over the system 
for the next 24 hours or so, which will probably limit much 
strengthening.  In a day or two, more significant strengthening is 
forecast as the wind shear decreases and Franklin remains over very 
warm sea surface temperatures.  Franklin is expected to become a 
hurricane over the weekend and should reach a peak intensity near 
major hurricane strength early next week.  The cyclone should 
level off in intensity by day 4, followed by a weakening trend 
thereafter due to Franklin moving over cooler waters and into a 
stronger vertical wind shear environment. The intensity forecast is 
fairly similar to the previous, with the only change being a 
slightly weaker system in the near term, which lies near the 
corrected consensus aids.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 21.8N  67.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 22.1N  67.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 22.8N  66.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 23.7N  67.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 25.2N  68.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  28/0000Z 26.8N  69.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 28.7N  69.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 33.1N  68.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 39.0N  63.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake
 
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