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Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 24 2023
 
Franklin is still a strongly sheared tropical storm, with deep 
convection displaced to the east and southeast of the surface 
center.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission flying at 
700 mb this evening fixed a center within the strong thunderstorm 
activity, but because of the cyclone's tilted structure, the 
surface center is estimated to be a few tenths of a degree farther 
west.  SFMR and flight-level winds suggest that the maximum winds 
could be between 50-55 kt, but the central pressure has risen a few 
millibars since this morning's flight.  Therefore, the initial 
intensity is held at 50 kt.

Franklin is embedded in the base of a deep-layer trough located 
over the western Atlantic, which is steering the storm toward the 
east-northeast (70 degrees) at 7 kt.  The parent trough is forecast 
to lift northeastward and allow mid-level ridging to build over the 
central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and Franklin is 
expected to respond by making a sharp but slow northward turn by 36 
hours.  The ridge could even be strong enough to push Franklin 
toward the north-northwest for a time while the storm moves across 
the western Atlantic, and the HAFS regional models in particular 
favor that scenario, being the westernmost of the guidance suite.  
Those models have tugged the consensus aids a bit west too, and as 
a result the new NHC forecast track is nudged in that direction 
compared to the previous forecast.
 
Moderate to strong deep-layer shear is likely to continue over 
Franklin for the next 36-48 hours, until the storm makes its 
northward turn.  That said, warm ocean waters and a favorably 
diffluent upper-level pattern should still allow for gradual 
strengthening during the next couple of days, and Franklin is 
expected to become a hurricane by 48 hours, about the time the shear 
abates.  More significant strengthening is likely after 48 hours 
while Franklin moves over the western Atlantic, and the NHC 
intensity forecast remains close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus 
aids.  The HAFS regional models continue to show stronger solutions, 
so trends in the other models will have to be monitored for 
potential upward adjustments to the official forecast in the coming 
days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 22.6N  68.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 22.9N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 23.2N  66.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 23.7N  66.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 24.8N  67.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  27/1200Z 26.1N  67.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 27.8N  68.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 31.9N  68.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 37.1N  65.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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