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Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023
 
Franklin is showing signs of intensification on the latest satellite 
imagery with increasing deep convection near and southeast of the 
center.  This trend is confirmed by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft mission that has been flying through the storm 
during the past few hours with maximum flight-level winds of 46 kt, 
believable SFMR winds of at least 40 kt, and the central pressure 
falling to 1002 mb.  The initial wind speed is set to 40 kt as a 
blend of the data.
 
The storm continues heading north-northeastward or 015/11 kt, 
steered by a ridge over the eastern Caribbean.  Franklin should move 
around the northern periphery of the ridge, turning 
east-northeastward tomorrow and slowing down by Friday.  As the 
remnants of Emily exit the central Atlantic, mid-level ridging 
should build back northeast of Franklin, turning the cyclone 
north-northwestward and northward this weekend.  For such an unusual 
August track, the model guidance is in reasonably good agreement, 
and little change was made to the last NHC track forecast.
 
Moderate westerly shear is forecast to limit the strengthening rate 
of Franklin during the next couple of days, though very warm waters 
should allow for gradual intensification.  In 2 or 3 days, an 
upper-level trough should cutoff to the southwest of Franklin, 
creating a lower shear and very diffluent flow pattern near the 
storm.  This environmental change will likely promote significant 
strengthening by late this weekend, and Franklin is forecast to 
become a powerful hurricane southwest of Bermuda.  The new intensity 
forecast is raised from the previous one at most time periods, and 
the stronger regional hurricane models showing major hurricane 
strength at long range are certainly reasonable possibilities.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Localized heavy rainfall from the outer bands of Franklin could
cause further isolated flash flooding through Thursday in vulnerable
areas of the Dominican Republic that already received torrential
rainfall.
 
2. Franklin is expected to continue to bring tropical storm 
conditions to portions of the Dominican Republic and the Turks and 
Caicos Islands overnight.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 21.2N  70.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 22.3N  69.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 23.0N  68.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 23.3N  66.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 23.7N  65.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 24.4N  65.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 25.8N  65.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 29.2N  67.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 33.0N  67.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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