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Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023
 
Franklin's center appears to have made landfall a little to the 
south of Barahona, Dominican Republic, shortly before 1200 UTC, and 
it is now moving northward over the mountainous terrain of the 
country.  Heavy rains have likely overspread much of Hispaniola, 
although the deepest convection is occurring along the south-central 
coast of the island.  It is assumed that the maximum winds have 
decreased now that the center is over land, and the initial 
intensity is set at 35 kt, which is close to the latest UW-CIMSS 
AiDT and D-PRINT estimates.

Franklin's speed has picked up a bit, and it is moving toward the 
north (005 degrees) at 11 kt.  The storm continues to move 
northward through a break in the subtropical ridge, but it is 
expected to turn northeastward in the next 24-36 hours when it 
becomes positioned near the southern extent of a large mid-latitude 
trough over the western Atlantic.  Then, in about 3 days, the 
central Atlantic ridge is expected to strengthen and block 
Franklin's eastward progress, forcing the storm to turn toward the 
north by days 4 and 5.  The track guidance is tightly clustered 
during the first 60-72 hours of the forecast, and the NHC track 
forecast is very close to the previous prediction and the various 
consensus aids.  After 72 hours, the guidance suggests that 
the northward turn may be a little delayed.  In response, the NHC 
track has been shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast at 
days 4 and 5.

Franklin will still be affected by moderate-to-strong 
west-southwesterly shear when it moves off the coast of Hispaniola 
later today, so it will likely take some time for the circulation 
to reorganize itself after moving over the rugged terrain.  
Otherwise, environmental conditions should support gradual 
strengthening starting in about 24 hours.  In about 3 days, 
a developing upper-level low near the Bahamas is likely to provide 
a more favorable diffluent environment aloft over Franklin, 
potentially fostering more significant strengthening.  Although 
there is a fairly wide range of intensity possibilities in the 
deterministic and ensemble intensity guidance on days 3-5, the 
overall guidance envelope has been trending higher.  The NHC 
intensity forecast follows that tendency and is higher than the 
previous forecast on days 4 and 5.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across much of 
Hispaniola into Thursday, which is expected to produce significant 
and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding as well as 
mudslides, particularly over central Hispaniola.
 
2. Franklin is bringing tropical storm conditions to portions of the
Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in
effect, and tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
the Turks and Caicos Islands later today or tonight.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 18.9N  70.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER DOMINICAN REPUB.
 12H  24/0000Z 20.5N  70.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  24/1200Z 22.1N  69.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 22.8N  68.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 23.1N  67.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z 23.4N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 24.3N  65.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 27.3N  66.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 31.1N  67.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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