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Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082023
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

The satellite presentation of Franklin has improved since the last 
advisory.  Recent Proxy Vis imagery suggest that the low-level 
circulation has become better defined, although there is still some 
question exactly where the center is.  The overall cloud pattern 
suggests the low-level center is closer to a recent burst of deep 
convection, closer to the mid-level circulation found by the last 
NOAA reconnaissance mission.  A blend of subjective and objective 
satellite estimates remain near 35 kt for this advisory, which is 
in agreement with what NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft found 
earlier. Therefore, the intensity will remain 35 kt for this 
advisory.

The system looks to have finally started a northward motion towards 
the island of Hispaniola, moving at 8 kt. The track guidance 
continues to be in fairly good agreement with a northward motion 
through tomorrow and then a northeastward course near the end of 
the work week due to broad troughing located over the western 
Atlantic.  By days 4 and 5, a stronger mid-level ridge develops over 
the central Atlantic, with Franklin expected to turn back to the 
north by the end of the forecast period.  Given the uncertainty in 
the center position, the current NHC forecast track lies near the 
previous forecast, which is also near the HCCA corrected consensus 
aid.

The new intensity forecast is fairly similar to the previous 
advisory. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day 
or so due to land interaction with Hispaniola and moderate wind 
shear. Gradual strengthening is anticipated after Franklin emerges 
north of Hispaniola due to warm waters but still notable shear. 
For days 4 and 5, when Franklin is still over the very warm western 
Atlantic waters, wind shear should decrease slightly, and  
strengthening is forecast, with the system becoming a hurricane by 
the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast after day 3 is 
slightly higher than the previous advisory, but lower than the 
stronger HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.  

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across much of 
Hispaniola into Thursday. The heavy rainfall is expected to produce 
significant and potentially life-threatening flash and urban 
flooding as well as mudslides, particularly over central Hispaniola 
through Wednesday.

2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect, beginning later tonight and continuing
through Wednesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 16.4N  71.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 17.6N  71.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 20.0N  70.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 21.5N  69.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 22.3N  68.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 22.6N  67.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 23.1N  67.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 24.9N  66.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 28.7N  68.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake
 
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