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TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072023
1500 UTC SUN AUG 20 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  38.8W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  38.8W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  38.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.3N  39.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...130NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N  41.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N  43.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N  45.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.6N  47.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N  49.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.8N  50.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 36.0N  51.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N  38.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
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