ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072023
500 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023
 
Emily is feeling the effects of southwesterly vertical wind shear 
with the low-level center fully exposed to the southwest of the main 
area of deep convection.  The initial intensity is held at 45 kt 
based on the earlier ASCAT data and the TAFB Dvorak satellite 
estimate.  The environment around Emily is expected to become 
increasingly hostile the next couple of days with shear increasing 
to near 40 kt while the system remains in relatively stable air.  
These unfavorable atmospheric conditions should cause steady 
weakening, and Emily could become a remnant low in a few of days.
 
The storm is moving to the northwest at 8 kt, and a general
west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next 2 to
3 days while the storm moves along the southwestern periphery of
the ridge.  After that time, a turn to the north is forecast while
the storm moves around the west side of the ridge and toward a
weakness.  The new track forecast is similar to the previous one and
near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 20.2N  39.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 20.7N  40.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 21.3N  42.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 22.1N  44.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 23.1N  46.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/0600Z 24.5N  48.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1800Z 26.4N  49.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1800Z 31.2N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1800Z 37.5N  49.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
NNNN