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TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052023
2100 UTC TUE JUL 18 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.9N  39.2W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE  70SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.9N  39.2W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.2N  39.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.1N  39.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 33.7N  40.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.8N  41.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.3N  42.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 35.2N  44.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.5N  46.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 40.5N  49.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 46.0N  47.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.9N  39.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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