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TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052023
0300 UTC TUE JUL 18 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N  40.4W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 120SE  90SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N  40.4W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N  40.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.3N  39.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.9N  39.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 34.1N  39.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.8N  40.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.2N  41.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 35.0N  43.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 37.4N  46.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 41.3N  49.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N  40.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
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