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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052023
1500 UTC MON JUL 17 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N  42.9W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  90SE  30SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N  42.9W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.9N  43.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 37.7N  41.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.0N  39.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.5N  39.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 33.8N  39.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.4N  40.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.7N  42.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 35.8N  45.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 39.5N  49.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N  42.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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