ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052023
0300 UTC MON JUL 17 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N  45.8W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N  45.8W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N  46.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 39.1N  43.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 37.9N  41.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.3N  40.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.6N  40.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 33.5N  40.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.2N  41.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 34.2N  44.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 37.2N  48.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N  45.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
NNNN