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SUBTROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052023
0300 UTC SAT JUL 15 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  47.2W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE   0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  47.2W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N  47.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.8N  47.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 37.1N  47.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 38.4N  47.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 38.8N  45.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 38.7N  43.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 37.5N  42.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  40SE  50SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 34.5N  39.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 33.4N  39.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N  47.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
 
 
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