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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032023
500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023
 
...BRET POISED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 56.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
 
A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret.  Additional watches or warnings may be required
later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 56.6 West.  Bret is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general 
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 
few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to
approach the Lesser Antilles today, move across the Lesser Antilles
this evening and tonight, and then move westward across the eastern
and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast today while Bret 
approaches the Lesser Antilles.  Weakening is anticipated to begin 
tonight or Friday after Bret passes the Lesser Antilles, and the 
system is likely to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea by 
Saturday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center, especially to the north.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
this evening or tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas and possible within the
watch areas later today and tonight.
 
RAINFALL:  Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the
Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St. Vincent and the
Grenadines, including Barbados.  The heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain.  Urban
flooding is also possible.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Bret are expected to begin affecting
portions of the Lesser Antilles today.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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