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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032023
1500 UTC MON JUN 19 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N  40.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N  40.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N  39.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.2N  42.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.7N  45.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.2N  48.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  30SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.8N  51.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N  53.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.8N  56.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  50SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 14.9N  61.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 16.5N  66.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N  40.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KELLY
 
 
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