ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 500 PM AST Fri Jun 23 2023 The intensity of Bret is decreasing as the system moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea. The low-level center is now fully exposed and deep convection is minimal. However, there is a relatively large area of showers well to the east of the center that is lingering over portions of the Lesser Antilles. An ASCAT pass from earlier today showed peak winds between 40-45 kt, and the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. This estimate is also in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Bret is currently experiencing about 20 kt of vertical wind shear, and since the shear is anticipated to increase, continued weakening is expected. All of the models show a steady decline in Bret's strength, and the new forecast is similar to the previous one. Dissipation is expected to occur on Sunday. The tropical storm continues to move quickly westward at 17 kt on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. This motion should continue during the next couple of days taking Bret across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea just north of the ABC Islands. The NHC track forecast is again a touch to the south of the previous one and remains on the fast side of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 13.1N 66.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 13.1N 69.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 13.2N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 13.2N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:09:07 UTC