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Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022
Paine is holding steady as a tropical storm. Satellite imagery has
shown a few deep convective bursts near the low-level circulation
overnight, which is now tucked underneath some cold cloud tops.
Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range from T2.0/30 kt
and T2.5/35 kt and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.
There is a brief window where environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for some additional slight strengthening. Global
models suggest the deep-layer vertical wind shear will remain low
for the next 6-12 hours as Paine moves over warm waters. Beyond
that time frame, the shear is expected to increase significantly
which will likely force the surrounding dry mid-level humidities
into the circulation and induce a weakening trend. Simulated
satellite imagery from both GFS and ECMWF suggest Paine will be a
remnant low in a couple of days. The latest NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous advisory, but now shows Paine becoming a
remnant low by 48 h.
The cyclone is moving northwestward at about 5 kt towards a weakness
in the ridge to its north. This general motion is expected to
continue for the next day or so until the Paine weakens and turns
westward in the low-level flow. There is still some spread in the
model guidance which seems largely linked to the depth of the
circulation and when it is expected to make the turn to the west.
The latest official track forecast is shifted south of the previous
prediction but still north of much of model guidance, excluding the
ECMWF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 16.9N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.5N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 18.3N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 18.7N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 19.0N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1800Z 19.1N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 19.2N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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