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Tropical Depression Ivette Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
900 PM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022
The satellite presentation of Ivette this evening has degraded, with
the prior burst of deep convection shearing away to the west and
dissipating, though a smaller convective cell has begun to redevelop
on the southwest side of the circulation. The definition of the
center itself on both conventional satellite and microwave imagery
appears more diffuse than before, suggesting that the earlier
convective burst did not help to tighten up the circulation. While
earlier scatterometer data indicated tropical-storm-force winds
existed in the convective northwest quadrant of Ivette, more recent
surface wind observations from Clarion island, also in this
quadrant, are lower than earlier, sustained at only 21 kt with
gusts up to 28 kt. These observations, in combination with the
degradation in the satellite structure this evening, support
lowering the intensity back to 30 kt for this advisory.
The ongoing moderate to strong easterly vertical wind shear is not
expected to subside for the next several days. However, as
previously mentioned, Ivette is expected to remain over sufficently
warm water that may allow occasional convective bursts over this
period, and it is difficult to determine when this activity will
become insufficient to maintain Ivette's status as a tropical
cyclone. It is still presumed that the ongoing shear will be too
hostile to allow these convective bursts to remain organized, and
like the previous advisory, gradual weakening is still forecast. The
latest NHC intensity forecast still shows Ivette becoming a
post-tropical remnant low in about 24 hours. One alternative
scenario is that the system may be able to persist as a weak
tropical cyclone a bit longer than forecasted if convection
redevelops like that seen earlier today.
There has been a slight acceleration in Ivette's westward motion
this evening, now estimated at 260/3 kt. A general slow westward
motion is forecast over the next several days following the weak
low-level steering, in addition to occasional convective bursts on
the west side of the circulation that may continue to tug it in
that direction. The latest NHC forecast track remains close to the
consensus aids and is just a touch north of the previous forecast
track after 24 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 17.6N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 17.6N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 17.7N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1200Z 18.0N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0000Z 18.3N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z 18.6N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
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