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Hurricane Howard Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022
Deep convection associated with Howard has decreased in intensity
and become less organized today while the cyclone moves over cooler
waters. Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have been lowered
from earlier today, and the objective Dvorak intensity estimate
from UW-CIMSS is below hurricane strength. Based on these values,
the advisory intensity is reduced to 65 kt.
Although the vertical wind shear is not forecast to increase, Howard
will continue to pass over cooler ocean waters during the next
couple of days. Moreover, model analyses and the presence of a
field of stratocumulus clouds just to the west of the cyclone
indicate that the system should soon be encountering a more stable
air mass. Therefore, continued steady weakening is forecast, and
the official intensity forecast is near or slightly above the model
consensus. Howard should make the transition into a post tropical
cyclone in 48 hours, or less.
Howard remains on a west-northwestward track, and continues moving
at around 300/9 kt. The track forecast philosophy is essentially
unchanged from the previous few advisories. A mid-level ridge
extending westward from a high pressure system over the southwestern
United States should keep the system on a west-northwestward course
for the next day or two. Late in the forecast period, weak
post-tropical Howard should turn westward following the near-surface
winds. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the
previous one.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 22.5N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 23.1N 119.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 23.8N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 24.3N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 24.7N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z 24.9N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z 24.9N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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